For U.S. President Joe Biden, who might prefer not to visit the Middle East this week or any other week,
he has too much work to do. Biden's Democratic colleagues in the U.S. Congress appear to be facing dismal election results after the midterm elections in November. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sparked the most serious rivalry between the world's largest nuclear-armed powers since the Cold War. And of course China is actively watching for signs of America's decline, as it continues its march toward superpower. To make matters more troubling, President Biden's past visits to the Middle East have shown the limits of American national power: As President Obama's deputy, he visited Jerusalem and called for a freeze on Israel's project to build Jewish settlements in the occupied territories. . At the time, he was humiliated by former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even though these new settlement projects violated international law. Biden will visit Israel this time and will spend a few hours in Palestine before heading to Saudi Arabia, where he will attend a summit of Gulf leaders. The leaders of Jordan, Egypt and Iraq will also participate in the summit.
loss of trust Politically, Biden's trip could serve as another reminder that U.S. influence in the Middle East continues to shrink. He may reiterate his call for an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, implementing a so-called "two-state" solution. But he knew that when he left, that hope would still be as far away as it was in the past. Biden, however, has reinstated U.S. financial aid to Palestine. Even more embarrassingly, Biden will ask the Saudi leader to do a big favor: produce more oil and sell it at a lower price. That's because the economic turmoil caused by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has left the United States, like the rest of the world, facing high energy prices, even though they are now no longer dependent on oil imports from the Gulf. But for Biden, the political ramifications are immediate, and every penny that goes up per gallon of gasoline in the U.S. will cost Democrats more votes in the midterm elections.
The U.S. made the plea at an awkward moment to Saudi Arabia, which has already spent billions on weapons. In 2011, President Barack Obama unceremoniously abandoned the country's President Hosni Mubarak after weeks of street demonstrations in Egypt. After that, Saudi Arabia no longer trusted Washington. They reasoned that if Americans could do this to a loyal friend, they could do it to anyone. Furthermore, one of Biden's first actions in the White House was the release of a U.S. intelligence report that stated that Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman wanted to act for Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Jamal Khashoggi was held responsible for the brutal murder, which deepened Saudi suspicions of the United States. In 2018, Khashoggi was killed and dismembered when he went to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to pick up some official documents. Saudi Arabia has consistently denied the charge of ordering the killing. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict: a century of grudges,
Khashoggi's death: US intelligence report says Saudi prince approved murder plan Oil prices skyrocket: OPEC's reason for "holding back" and its potential impact on China In addition, Biden called Saudi Arabia a "pariah state" during his presidential campaign, murdering critics and imprisoning many prominent political dissidents. For the Saudis, they therefore feel they owe the US president no favors. Now, to the embarrassment of some Biden supporters, Biden is preparing to take back what he said. Presidents of the United States do not usually visit such a country. The White House has an ambitious but vague set of ideas to force Russia to sell its oil at a lower price. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the West imposed sanctions on Moscow, but oil and gas revenues still flowed into Russian coffers. Therefore, the U.S. plan to deplete these funds will not work without Saudi support.
Iran factor
The confrontation between the two camps around Iran and the United States has been the main driver of conflict in the Middle East for much of this century. The standoff is dangerous and there are signs that it will reignite the conflict. This is also an important reason for President Biden's trip to the Middle East, as important as oil prices. The crisis has been brewing since Donald Trump withdrew in 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which limited Iran's nuclear potential. Iran has in the past respected agreements to limit its nuclear program, but it has maintained that those limits do not include nuclear weapons.
But after Trump stepped in and re-sanctioned Iran, Tehran responded by accelerating its nuclear program. Iran has now enriched enough uranium to be very close to producing a nuclear device. Indeed, countering Iran together is one of the reasons why countries are pushing for the Abraham Accords. The agreement is a settlement between Israel and some Gulf Emirati countries. It is also a major diplomatic achievement of the Trump administration. Highlights from the historic meeting between Israel, Arab countries and the United States The Arab world "may appear to seek a Chinese model of authoritarian politics" Israel strikes peace deals with UAE and Bahrain: 5 things to watch that are shaking up the Middle East There has been talk of a Middle East version of NATO that includes Israel and some Arab countries friendly to the United States. However, the possibility of a formal military alliance between these Arab states and Israel remains low.
At this point, Biden may urge Israel to exercise restraint. Because, Israel has heated up a secret war with Iran, one full of assassinations, mysterious fires and explosions of nuclear facilities, and cyber warfare. And the last thing Biden wants is for the United States to be dragged into a hot war with Iran by Israel. President Biden is now under fire at home, facing a crisis in Ukraine and another looming crisis in Iran, making his trip difficult. Allies the United States has cultivated for decades, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, are less flexible about their obligations to support allies or not. In the presidential suite of "Air Force One", Biden may once again face the limits of American national power.
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